Understanding property cycles – tips for property buyers

When considering property investment or purchasing a home in South East Queensland, it’s essential to understand how property cycles impact Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast markets.

Like all real estate markets, these regions experience cycles of growth, stability, and correction. By understanding these cycles, you can make informed decisions, time your purchase effectively, and maximise value.

In this article, we discuss the key stages of property cycles, the factors influencing them in Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, and tips for navigating these markets as a buyer or investor.

What is a property cycle?

A property cycle refers to the recurring pattern of changes in real estate markets over time, often driven by economic, social, and market-specific factors. A typical property cycle has four phases:

1. Peak of the market:High confidence, significantly more buyers than sellers (seller’s market), low rental yields, prices at a premium and short days on market.

2. Declining market: Less confidence, more equitable market (more even number of buyers and sellers), properties on the market for longer.

3. Bottom of the market: No confidence in the market, significantly more sellers than buyers (buyer’s market), prices falling and lowest in the property cycle.

4. Rising market: Stock levels tightening, prices rising, valuations rising.

Understanding where a market sits in this cycle is crucial for buyers, as timing can impact affordability, competition, and long-term returns. One of the largest independent valuation firms, Herron Todd White, release a monthly national report which includes their property clock. This property clock provides their insight in to where they see different markets are performing. 

Source: Herron Todd White (October, 2024)

The Sunshine Coast property market cycle

The Sunshine Coast is unique, combining a mix of lifestyle buyers, retirees, and investors seeking growth potential. Its property market is shaped by:

Lifestyle appeal

The Sunshine Coast’s stunning beaches, laid-back lifestyle, and proximity to Brisbane make it a magnet for sea-changers and retirees. This demand supports higher property prices, particularly in premium suburbs like Noosa Heads and Sunshine Beach.

Tourism and local economy

Tourism is a key economic driver, bringing strong demand for short-term accommodation. However, the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the region’s reliance on domestic visitors, causing fluctuations in the market. A growing focus on diversification—such as the Sunshine Coast University Hospital and expanding digital hubs (eg. Peregian Beach Digital Hub) —has strengthened its economy and housing demand.

Limited land supply

Tightly controlled land releases and geographic constraints limit housing supply on the Sunshine Coast. This drives competition, particularly in sought-after suburbs, and sustains price growth during recovery and boom phases.

Infrastructure growth

The Sunshine Coast is benefiting from significant infrastructure investment, including the Maroochydore City Centre development, Sunshine Coast Airport expansion, and rail upgrades. These projects enhance connectivity, economic growth, and demand for housing.

The Brisbane property market cycle

Brisbane has historically been viewed as a “steady growth” market compared to Sydney or Melbourne. However, recent years have brought significant change. Here’s a closer look at what shapes Brisbane’s property cycle:

Population growth

Brisbane’s population is steadily increasing, with interstate migration from southern states being a significant driver. Affordable housing, lifestyle benefits, and the upcoming 2032 Brisbane Olympics have contributed to the city’s appeal. Population growth fuels housing demand, often sustaining the boom and recovery phases.

Infrastructure investment

Major infrastructure projects, such as Cross River Rail, Queen’s Wharf, and upgrades to Brisbane Airport, boost the local economy and housing demand. These projects attract workers, investors, and developers, pushing property prices upward.

Affordability

Compared to Sydney and Melbourne, Brisbane offers more affordable property options, making it an attractive alternative for buyers. This affordability often leads to prolonged periods of steady growth, even during broader market downturns.

Rental demand

Brisbane has experienced low rental vacancy rates and rising rents, making it an appealing market for investors. High rental yields help sustain demand, particularly in the recovery phase.

Comparing the two markets

Both markets are currently experiencing significant attention due to post-pandemic migration and infrastructure developments. However, economic conditions such as interest rate rises and inflation are influencing market behavior.

Brisbane:

The city remains in a growth phase, albeit slower than the peak experienced in 2021-2022.

Strong interstate migration continues to underpin demand, but rising interest rates have tempered price growth.

Sunshine Coast:

Premium suburbs like Noosa and Sunshine Beach have seen prices soften after rapid growth during the pandemic.

Demand for lifestyle properties remains strong, but affordability concerns may limit broader market activity.

Tips for navigating property cycles

Understand local drivers

Markets like Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast are influenced by specific factors such as infrastructure, employment, and lifestyle trends. Stay informed about these local dynamics to predict where the market is heading.

Don’t try to time the market perfectly

While it’s helpful to know the property cycle, trying to time the “perfect” moment can be risky. Focus on long-term value and whether the property meets your financial and lifestyle goals.

Work with a Noosa Buyers’ Agent or Brisbane Buyers’ Agent

An experienced local buyers’ agent can provide valuable insights into where a market sits in its cycle, help identify growth areas, and negotiate favorable terms.

Research thoroughly

Use data tools like CoreLogic, PriceFinder and Real Estate Investar to analyse past and current trends. Compare sales data, rental yields, and growth forecasts to make informed decisions.

Consider future trends

For Brisbane, the 2032 Olympics will likely stimulate long-term demand. For the Sunshine Coast, continued infrastructure investment and economic diversification signal growth opportunities.

Focus on quality

Properties in high-demand areas with strong fundamentals (proximity to amenities, transport, and lifestyle features) tend to perform well throughout cycles.

Conclusion 

Understanding property cycles on the Sunshine Coast and in Brisbane is key to making smarter buying decisions. While each market has its unique characteristics, both offer opportunities for buyers and investors who take the time to research, plan, and seek expert advice.

Whether you’re looking for a family home, a lifestyle retreat, or a high-performing investment, aligning your strategy with the market cycle can help you secure the best property at the right time.

As local buyers’ agent with extensive market knowledge, we’re here to guide you through the complexities of these property cycles. Contact us today to discuss your goals and how we can help you navigate the Sunshine Coast or Brisbane markets.